Q: For a long time Ive been thinking about a career change. Ive got a terrific idea for a service targeted to first-time home buyers and real estate agents. And Ive got a years salary in the bank.

My friends say, Go for it! But my business advisor warns, If the real estate market slows down, your idea wont work. How can I forecast the real estate market?

A. Did you hear a crashing sound? That was my crystal ball, shattering.

Believe me, if I could predict markets, I would be writing this ezine from a penthouse in Trump Tower. A limo would be idling on the street, waiting to drive my Gracie (my adopted mutt) and me to an elite dog park...

But lets return to reality.

Often we cant predict events but we need to protect our future. Therefore, our question shifts from What will happen? to What would I do if X happens?

We do this all the time when we leave home everyday. We cant always predict rain. But, if its really important to stay dry, we carry an umbrella even if the sun is shining and we have an all clear forecast.

So before embarking on your next adventure, here are 5 steps create your own career insurance policy.

(1) Assess your relationship to your target market.

Clients who consider starting a business usually worry about getting a business license, finding health insurance and accumulating capital. Sure, these areas are important. But what you really need are customers.

In my experience, success comes most easily to those who share two qualities. They speak the language of their target market and they have direct access to potential customers.

For example, if youve been working in the loan division of a bank, you may already speak real estate language. If youre an accountant or marketing pro with many clients in the real estate field, you probably speak the language and you have a list of realistic prospects.

(2) Identify your red, green and yellow lights.

Once an investor said, I cant predict the devaluation of the dollar. But I have identified the maximum tolerable devaluation that I can handle. If the dollar goes below that level, I know what actions I will take.

You can do the same. Each business (and each job) will have different benchmarks. But you can decide ahead of time when you will pull out, invest more aggressively, or slow down.

(3) Develop your most pessimistic scenario and decide what you will do if it happens.

I recommend writing out both your worst case scenario and your Plan B.

For example, as you noted, the market may crash. But consider other possible outcomes. For example, working in real estate on a day-to-day basis may be considerably less appealing once you get into the nitty gritty details.

And your Plan B may seem flimsy once you get into the details. I can always go back to my current career is not a Plan B unless you have a bona fide, legal agreement for a leave of absence.

But often theres no possibility of going back, even if you can. Both you and your industry will be different and some career fields have high barriers to re-entry.

(4) Test the waters.

Often you can start on a small scale, part time basis to see if the market is ready for your idea. More important, you also decide if you like your new world.

If youre not competing with your employer, you may be able to get an unpaid leave of absence to test your venture. These sabbaticals are rare, and you have to be careful with the way you phrase your request. But it happens.

(5) Consider how to find your dream career -- and then another one.

Sometimes you really, truly need a change, and you have to get serious about moving. In my experience, frustrated workers tend to experience physical symptoms. Some even sabotage their own success so theyre forced to find a new career.

Few professionals have just one (and only one) passion. And once you begin exploring, you will find alternative paths to career success and fulfillment.